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Trump Coin Dumps: Is a 90% Crash on the Horizon?

Trump Coin Dumps: Is a 90% Crash on the Horizon?How much is 1 pi coin in dollars?

Trump Coin (TRUMP), the official meme coin associated with former US President Donald Trump, was launched in January. Since its inception, it has been navigating a challenging journey in the volatile cryptocurrency market. Currently, the situation appears to be predominantly bearish, with multiple factors hinting at a possible further price decline.

As of recent data, TRUMP's latest trading price is slightly below $8 per coin. Although this marks a 10% increase from the low of around $7 touched last week, the coin remains entrenched in a long - term downward trend. Over the past three months, the meme coin has consistently faced resistance at its 21 - day moving average (DMA). In fact, the price of Trump Coin has already plummeted by approximately 90% from its post - launch high of over $70.

Now, let's take a look at the upcoming event that could potentially exacerbate the situation. A significant token unlock is scheduled to take place later this week. Specifically, 4% of the meme coin's total supply is set to be unlocked on April 18. Given that only 20% of the total supply is currently in circulation, this unlock will result in a 20% increase in the circulating supply. This surge in supply, combined with the already bearish technical indicators, spells trouble for the coin's price.

The bearish technical aspects are quite evident. The consistent resistance at the 21 - DMA indicates a lack of upward momentum. Moreover, the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains subdued due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the underperformance of altcoins. This means that the prospects of a significant bullish reversal in the short term are rather bleak.

When analyzing the price movements, we can also observe that Trump Coin has been struggling to break key levels. For instance, it has found it difficult to hold above the $14.53 support level for over a month, which in turn has made it nearly impossible to breach the $15.62 resistance level. Even if there are brief price recoveries, it is likely to remain range - bound between $14.53 and $15.62, suggesting limited upside potential in the short run.

Question: What does the 21 - day moving average (DMA) resistance mean for Trump Coin?Answer: The 21 - DMA resistance implies that the price of Trump Coin has repeatedly failed to move above this average over the past 21 days. It is a sign of weak upward momentum. Sellers are likely more active around this level, preventing the price from rising. This consistent resistance is a bearish signal and indicates that the coin is facing difficulties in generating positive price trends.

Another concerning factor is the market sentiment towards Trump Coin. Investor hesitation is clearly visible. Despite some events that initially caused a 11% intraday increase, the coin quickly retraced and ended up with a 3.3% decline to $14.25. This lack of sustained growth reflects the investors' wariness and the coin's inability to capitalize on market hype.

Question: Why do investors seem hesitant about Trump Coin?Answer: There are several reasons for investor hesitation. Firstly, the long - term downward trend of the coin's price is a major deterrent. Secondly, the upcoming token unlock and the potential increase in supply are causing concerns about price dilution. Additionally, the overall weak sentiment in the cryptocurrency market and the underperformance of altcoins make investors more cautious. Finally, the coin's failure to break key support and resistance levels also adds to the uncertainty.

Looking at the broader market context, the cryptocurrency market fear - greed index has dropped to 14 (extreme fear), close to the historical low during the LUNA crash in 2024. The social media discussion volume about TRUMP has also decreased significantly, with the mention of the Twitter keyword "#BuyTrump" dropping by 89%. Meanwhile, theȫ�� Trump contract open interest has sharply decreased to $260 million, indicating a high risk of further price decline.

Question: How does the market fear - greed index affect Trump Coin?Answer: A low market fear - greed index, especially in the extreme fear zone, indicates that investors are generally pessimistic about the cryptocurrency market. This negative sentiment can spill over to Trump Coin. When investors are fearful, they are less likely to buy or hold the coin, which can put downward pressure on its price. Moreover, in a fearful market, investors tend to move towards more stable assets, further reducing the demand for a relatively risky meme coin like Trump Coin.

So, is a 90% crash on the horizon? While it's difficult to predict with absolute certainty, the current situation is far from promising. The combination of bearish technicals, the upcoming supply increase, and the overall market sentiment suggests that Trump Coin is at a high risk of hitting new lows. It may soon drop below the $7 - per - token mark. Investors should exercise extreme caution and conduct thorough due diligence (DYOR) before making any decisions regarding this coin.

In conclusion, the future of Trump Coin looks rather gloomy. Unless there are significant positive developments, such as a sudden change in the overall market sentiment, a breakthrough in key resistance levels, or a unique event that can boost investor confidence, the coin is likely to continue its downward spiral.

It's important to note that investing in cryptocurrencies, especially meme coins like Trump Coin, is highly speculative and risky. The market is constantly evolving, and new factors can emerge that may change the price dynamics. Therefore, always stay updated and make informed decisions.

Factor	Impact on Trump Coin
Token Unlock	Potential increase in supply leading to price dilution and downward pressure
Bearish Technicals	Resistance at 21 - DMA and difficulty in breaking key levels, indicating lack of upward momentum
Market Sentiment	Overall negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market and investor hesitation

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Bullish factors: - In the short term (1 - 3 months), there could be an opportunity during the April tax season when US retail investors receive tax refunds. They might hype the "Trump tax cut 2.0" concept, which could potentially drive up the price. - If the coin manages to break through the $11.5 resistance level, it could see a short - term target of $13 - $14.8, and in extreme cases, it could reach $17.95. - In the medium term (6 - 12 months), if Bitcoin experiences a strong rebound in the second half of 2025 and breaks above $110,000 again, meme coins, including Trump Coin, may see a collective upswing.

Bearish factors: - The upcoming token unlock will increase the circulating supply, which may lead to a price drop. - The bearish technical indicators, such as the resistance at the 21 - DMA and the struggle to break key support and resistance levels, suggest continued downward pressure. - The low market fear - greed index and the decreasing social media discussion volume indicate a lack of investor interest and potential further decline.

Question: Which is more likely to occur in the short term, the bullish or bearish factors?Answer: Based on the current situation, the bearish factors seem more likely to dominate in the short term. The upcoming token unlock is a significant event that will directly impact the supply - demand balance. The bearish technical indicators also show that the coin lacks upward momentum. While there are some potential bullish scenarios, such as the tax - season hype and technical rebounds, they are more speculative and rely on specific conditions being met. Therefore, in the short term, the price of Trump Coin is more likely to continue its downward trend.